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Claudia Sahm - 2 Jan Hatzius - 2 Goldman Sachs - 2 Jerome Powell - 2 — - 1 Sahm - 1 doesn't - 1 Hatzius - 1
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☆ Renowned economist Claudia Sahm breaks down why her famous recession indicator won't be triggered this year — and why the last mile of the Fed's inflation battle could be the easiest
  + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
Read previewClaudia Sahm, the former Federal Reserve economist who developed the Sahm Rule recession indicator, believes the US economy will likely avoid a downturn this year. We solved the labor shortage by getting more labor," Sahm said. "The foreign-born labor force has made a disproportionate contribution to reducing the jobs-workers gap. This has been driven by two factors: above-trend immigration growth and greater foreign-born labor force participation," said Jan Hatzius, the chief US economist at Goldman Sachs, in an August 2023 client note. "Growth in the foreign-born labor force has accelerated by 50k to 160k per month this year, lifted by a surging foreign-born labor force participation rate," Hatzius added.
Persons: —, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, doesn't, Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs, Hatzius, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, National Bureau of Economic, US, Labor, Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed Locations: flatlining
☆ 'We are at the very onset of a recession right now': A top Wall Street strategist shares a 'huge red flag' signaling the economy is heading into a downturn — sending stocks tumbling as much as 20%
  + stars: | 2023-11-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
Right now, it's up 7.7% year-over-year and continues to rise, prompting Kantrowitz to say it's a "huge red flag for me." Still, while the unemployment rate is up to 3.9% from its 3.4% low earlier this year, unemployment claims have not spiked meaningfully. Piper Sandler"Regarding employment – I see enough data that has me convinced that we are at the very onset of a recession right now," Kantrowitz said. If the unemployment rate continues to tick upward, even slightly, it will likely trigger the Sahm rule mentioned above. Plenty of market onlookers see a recession in 2024, including DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffery Gundlach and Citadel founder Ken Griffin.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Sahm's, It's, Claudia Sahm, Jon Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger, Jeffery Gundlach, Ken Griffin, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Brian Moynihan Organizations: Federal, Business, Institute for Supply Management's, Investor, Federal Reserve, National Federal, Independent, Treasury, Conference, DoubleLine Capital, Citadel, Bank of America
☆ Here's what to watch in Friday's big October jobs report
  + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Don't hold your breath looking for that big of a decline, said Amy Glaser, senior vice president at global staffing firm Adecco. We're still seeing resilience in the market," Glaser said. Indeed, a potentially important trend has been the hiring of part-time workers in recent months. Strike impactClose to half a million American workers have gone on strike in recent months. While a number of those high-profile stoppages have been resolved, some of the activity will show up in the October jobs report.
Persons: you've, payrolls, Dow Jones, Amy Glaser, We're, Glaser, Jerome Powell, Jeffrey Roach, Roach, Homebase Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, LPL, Employers, of Labor Statistics, United Auto Workers
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